1960-2005年长江中下游极端降水指数变化特征分析   总被引：17，自引：8，他引：9  

王冀  江志红  严明良  张金玲 《气象科学》2008,28(4):384-388

本文利用长江中下游流域内的81个气象站,对长江中下游极端降水指数的时空变化特征进行分析.结果发现,在时间尺度上,长江中下游地区近46 a来极端降水指数呈上升趋势,其中降水强度上升趋势最明显,各个极端降水指数在年代际尺度上具有相同的变化特征,均存在着12 a左右的周期振荡,在年际尺度上,各极端降水指数变化周期并不一致.大雨日数与其他指数相比突变时间比较早,发生在1979年,其他几个指数突变时间比较接近,出现在1990年前后.在空间变化上,除极端湿天降水量在全区均为上升趋势外,其他几种极端降水指数在江苏东部地区、湖北西北部都存在着极端降水指数的负变化趋势,高值区主要分布在江西大部、湖北东南部、湖南东北部地区.  相似文献   

单次极端高温过程中城市热岛效应的识别   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4  

张雷  任国玉  任玉玉 《气候与环境研究》2015,20(2):167-176

利用高密度自动观测站逐时气温资料和NCEP再分析资料,按照客观的标准选择参考站,分析2010年7月2~6日北京一次极端高温过程中城市热岛强度(IUHI)对城区地面气温时空分布的影响。此次高温过程连续5日的日最高气温均超过35.0°C,为北京站1951年以来连续5日平均最高气温的最高值。大陆暖高压控制我国大部分地区,北京处于高压脊前,西北气流下沉增温,加之气流越山引起的焚风效应,是导致此次极端高温过程发生的环流背景。但受城市热岛效应影响,最高、最低和平均气温的空间分布均出现了以城区为中心的高值区,从城区中心向郊区平均IUHI逐渐减小,最低气温IUHI较大,四环线以内5日平均IUHI达到2.93°C,四、五环线之间1.87°C,五、六环线之间1.43°C;最高气温IUHI较小,但四环线以内,四、五环线之间和五、六环线之间5日平均IUHI仍分别达到1.45°C、0.96°C和0.72°C。在7月3~6日夜间,四环内IUHI极值均在3.00°C以上,特别是7月6日凌晨达到5.50°C;白天IUHI相对较小,其中2日早晨甚至还出现了负值。城区各地带IUHI日变化规律几乎同步,具有两个相对稳定阶段和两个快速变化阶段。稳定的强IUHI阶段从21:00(北京时间,下同)持续到次日05:00,稳定的弱IUHI阶段从08:00至18:00;05:00至08:00是IUHI快速衰减阶段,而18:00至21:00是IUHI快速上升阶段。因此,城市热岛效应对北京城区夏季单次极端高温过程的强度及其空间分布具有显著影响,在很大程度上加重了城区特别是中心城区的高温影响。  相似文献   

中国近54年来夏季极端降水事件特征研究   总被引：8，自引：2，他引：6  

龙妍妍  范广洲  段炼  冯琬  王钦  李飞  张永莉 《气候与环境研究》2016,21(4):429-438

利用1960~2013年中国6~8月无缺测的571站逐日降水资料,定义7个极端降水指数,研究中国夏季极端降水事件特征。结果表明:(1)极端降水事件空间分布存在明显的区域性差异,长江中下游地区、华南地区、西北地区表现为增加趋势,东北地区、华北地区、西南部分地区表现为减少趋势;时间分布表现出具有显著的年际和年代际变化特征,极端降水事件有增加趋势,在20世纪90年代初期有明显转折。(2)M-K检验表现出极端降水事件在20世纪90年代初发生突变,突变前(后)偏弱(强)。(3)极端降水指数周期振荡不完全一致,准15年周期振荡为主,其次是准7年周期,最强振动出现在1998年。(4)除持续干期指数外,其他极端降水指数间存在较好的相关性。  相似文献   

未来极端降水对气候平均变暖敏感性的蒙特卡罗模拟试验   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5  

江志红  丁裕国  蔡敏 《气象学报》2009,67(2):272-279

利用Weibull分布拟合逐日降水的原始分布模式,并基于统计降尺度和蒙特卡罗随机模拟方法,对中国东部区域各站逐日极端降水量在未来气候变暖条件下的响应特征进行统计数值试验.结果表明,在全球变暖背景下,区域平均温度的改变即可导致区域极端降水概率分布特征的变动.从两个典型代表区域的预估结果中可见,长江中下游南部平均降水量对平均温度升高有正响应,模拟得到的区域极端降水概率分布曲线有明显的向右平移,导致大量级的极端降水的再现期缩短即概率增大.山东及渤海湾区域平均降水量对平均温度升高有负响应,模拟得到的区域极端降水概率密度分布尺度参数变小更明显,即方差增大,表现为左右两侧概率密度增加,同样导致大量级的极端降水再现期缩短即概率增大.本文仅考察了气候均值改变条件下,未来区域气候极端值的概率预估的可行性方案.对于未来气候方差的变化并未作试验,但理论上已经证明,未来气候极端值的概率对于气候方差变化的敏感性可能更大.由于目前尚未整卵出考察方差变化的较为完整的实际观测资料,该问题还有待进一步深入研究.  相似文献   

Simulation of Precipitation in Monsoon Regions of China by CMIP3 Models   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

TU Kai  YAN Zhong-Wei  ZHANG Xue-Bin  DONG Wen-Jie 《大气和海洋科学快报》2009,2(4):194-200

The output of 25 models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 （CMIP3） were evaluated, with a focus on summer precipitation in eastern China for the last 40 years of the 20th century. Most models failed to reproduce rainfall associated with the East Asian summer monsoon （EASM）, and hence the seasonal cycle in eastern China, but provided reasonable results in Southwest （SW） and Northeast China （NE）. The simulations produced reasonable results for the Yangtze-Huai （YH） Basin area, although the Meiyu phenomenon was underestimated in general. One typical regional phenomenon, a seasonal northward shift in the rain belt from early to late summer, was completely missed by most models. The long-term climate trends in rainfall over eastern China were largely underestimated, and the observed geographical pattern of rainfall changes was not reproduced by most models. Precipitation extremes were evaluated via parameters of fitted GEV （Generalized Ex- treme Values） distributions. The annual extremes were grossly underestimated in the monsoon-dominated YH and SW regions, but reasonable values were calculated for the North China （NC） and NE regions. These results suggest a general failure to capture the dynamics of the EASM in current coupled climate models. Nonetheless, models with higher resolution tend to reproduce larger decadal trends and annual extremes of precipitation in the regions studied.  相似文献   

江苏省近45a极端气候的变化特征   总被引：13，自引：8，他引：5       下载免费PDF全文

潘敖大  范苏丹  陈海山 《气象科学》2010,30(1):87-92

利用江苏省35个测站1960—2004年45 a的逐日最高温度、最低温度、日降水量资料集,分析了近45 a江苏省极端高温、极端低温以及极端降水的基本变化特征。结果表明:(1)多年平均年极端高温的空间分布表现为西高东低,而极端低温则表现为自北向南的显著增加,极端降水的发生频次自南向北逐渐减少;(2)极端高温在江苏中部以及南部大部分地区有上升趋势,而西北地区则有弱的下降趋势;全省极端低温表现为显著的升高趋势;极端降水频次在南部地区有增加的趋势,北部减少趋势,中部则无变化趋势。(3)江苏极端高温、低温和极端降水的年际和年代际变化具有区域性差异,其中极端降水频次变化的区域性差异最为明显。  相似文献   

CONNECTION OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA SUMMER MONSOON TO MARITIME CONTINENT CONVECTION AND ENSO     

谷德军  李天明  纪忠萍  郑彬 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2010,16(1):1-9

The relationship between the intensity of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) and the Nino3.4 index and anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns associated with a strong and weak SCSSM are investigated using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) data and Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) data. The SCSSM is significantly positively correlated with the Nino3.4 index in the succeeding northern autumn and winter. In the strong minus weak SCSSM composite, a positive East Asia-Pacific teleconnection (EAP) pattern and a negative Europe-Asian-Pacific teleconnection (EUP) pattern appear in the 500 hPa height difference field; low-level cross-equatorial flows are strengthened over the Maritime Continent (MC) region; positive (negative) precipitation anomalies occur in the South China Sea and western north Pacific (MC). A possible mechanism through which SCSSM affects ENSO is proposed. A strong (weak) SCSSM strengthens (weakens) cross-equatorial flows over the MC. The anomalous cross-equatorial flows cool (warm) the SST around the MC through enhanced (reduced) surface latent heat fluxes. The cooling (warming) further leads to suppressed (enhanced) convection over the MC, and causes the anomalous westerly (easterly) in the equatorial western Pacific, which favors the onset of El Ni?o (La Ni?a) through modulating the positive air-sea feedback process.  相似文献   

Ion acoustic instability of HPT particles,FAC density,anomalous resistivity and parallel electric field in the auroral region     

C. S. Jayasree  G. Renuka  C. Venugopal 《Journal of Earth System Science》2003,112(4):559-567

During the magnetic storm of 21st March 1990, the DE-1 spacecraft encountered the auroral region at high invariant latitude at altitudes ranging from a few thousand kilometers in the ionosphere to many earth radii in the magnetosphere. The magnetic field perturbations interpretable as field aligned current (FAC) layers and the electrostatic turbulence possibly due to electrostatic ion acoustic instability driven by these currents are shown. The critical drift velocity of Hot Plasma Torus (HPT) electrons and the growth rate of ion acoustic wave as a function of electron to ion temperature ratio (T _e/T_i) for low and high current densities and energy of HPT electrons are found out. The intense FAC destabilizes the ion acoustic wave and the resultant electrostatic turbulence creates an anomalous resistivity. The current driven resistivity produces parallel electric field and high power dissipation. The anomalous resistivityη, potential difference along the auroral field lines V_t|, intensity of electric field turbulenceE _t| and power produced per unit volumeP are computed. It is found that the change in westward magnetic perturbation increasesJ _t|, η, V_t|, E_t| andP. Hence HPT electrons are heated and accelerated due to power dissipation during magnetically active periods in the auroral region. Concerning, applications, such HPT electrons can be used in particle accelerators like electron ring accelerator, smokatron etc.  相似文献   

Soil erosion and sediment interception by check dams in a watershed for an extreme rainstorm on the Loess Plateau,China     

《国际泥沙研究》2020,35(4):408-416

The magnitude of soil erosion and sediment load reduction efficiency of check dams under extreme rainstorms is a long-standing concern. The current paper aims to use check dams to deduce the amount of soil erosion under extreme rainstorms in a watershed and to identify the difference in sediment interception efficiency of different types of check dams. Based on the sediment deposition at 12 check dams with 100% sediment interception efficiency and sub-catchment clustering by taking 12 dam-controlled catchments as clustering criteria, the amount of soil erosion resulting from an extreme rainstorm event on July 26, 2017 (named “7·26” extreme rainstorm) was estimated in the Chabagou watershed in the hill and gully region of the Loess Plateau. The differences in the sediment interception efficiency among the check dams in the watershed were analyzed according to field observations at 17 check dams. The results show that the average erosion intensity under the “7–26” extreme rainstorm was approximately 2.03 × 10⁴ t/km², which was 5 times that in the second largest erosive rainfall in 2017 (4.15 × 10³ t/km²) and 11–384 times that for storms in 2018 (0.53 × 10² t/km² - 1.81 × 10³ t/km²). Under the “7–26” extreme rainstorm, the amount of soil erosion in the Chabagou watershed above the Caoping hydrological station was 4.20 × 10⁶ t. The sediment interception efficiency of the check dams with drainage canals (including the destroyed check dams) and with drainage culverts was 6.48 and 39.49%, respectively. The total actual sediment amount trapped by the check dams was 1.11 × 10⁶ t, accounting for 26.36% of the total amount of soil erosion. In contrast, 3.09 × 10⁶ t of sediment were input to the downstream channel, and the sediment deposition in the channel was 2.23 × 10⁶ t, accounting for 53.15% of the total amount of soil erosion. The amount of sediment transport at the hydrological station was 8.60 × 10⁵ t. The Sediment Delivery Ratio (SDR) under the “7·26” extreme rainstorm was 0.21. The results indicated that the amount of soil erosion was huge, and the sediment interception efficiency of the check dams was greatly reduced under extreme rainstorms. It is necessary to strengthen the management and construction technology standards of check dams to improve the sediment interception efficiency and flood safety in the watershed.  相似文献   

区域生态地球化学评价思路及建议   总被引：25，自引：17，他引：25  

杨忠芳  成杭新  奚小环  刘爱华 《地质通报》2005,24(8):687-693

区城生态地球化学评价是在多目标地球化学调查基础上开展的一项区域评价研究工作，其目的是为国家和所薪究地区的国民经济建设、工农业结构调整和社会可持续发展提供基础地球化学资料。区域生态地球化学评价以异常元素的来源-成因-迁移转化-生态效应-预测预警为研究主线，以生态系统为研究基本单元，查明异常元素分布、分配、成因及来源，研究它们在地球表层备大层圈中的迁移转化规律，评价它们所产生的生态效应，应用地球化学和生态学的基本原理和方法对污染的生态系统进行预测预警，井提出治理建议，为国家区域性经济战略调整和工农业可持续发展提供科学依据。  相似文献